Problem Set 8
We’re going to look at data from the most recent legislative elections in El Salvador, in which Bukele’s Nuevas Ideas party participated for the first time. I scraped the data from the internet and did some cleaning but it’s still incomplete and should not be interpreted as final vote results.
Every row here tells you how many votes each party got in a municipality, plus some other information about economic and social variables in the municipality (e.g., access to electricity).
Task 1: What did Nuevas Ideas run on?
Go online and try to figure out how Nuevas Ideas campaigned. What was their platform or campaign promises, how did they present themselves to the public? Include a link for reference.
Task 2: What are these municipalities like?
Pick three variables you are interested in and make a histogram of each. Describe and discuss the distribution; what’s the average look like? How much do municipalities vary along this variable (i.e., is there a big range of values or a small range)?
Pick two of these variables and make a scatterplot with a trend line. Describe the relationship and what it tells you about El Salvador’s municipalities.
Task 3: How did Bukele do?
What percent of the vote did Bukele’s Nuevas Ideas party win in each municipality? To answer this question you need to first create a column that tells you the TOTAL number of votes cast in each municipality (you can use the SUM function). Then, create a column that tells you the vote share for Nuevas Ideas and make a histogram. How did Nuevas Ideas do? What does the distribution look like?
How did El Salvador’s traditional parties do (the FMLN and ARENA)? Repeat (1), make the histogram for each party, and discuss their performance in the election. How badly were they wrecked?
What variables explain where Nuevas Ideas did best? Pick 3 municipal characteristics, make scatterplots with trend lines (with the characteristic on the x-axis, Nuevas Ideas vote share on the y-axis) and discuss the relationship. How well do these variables explain who voted for Nuevas Ideas?
|nuestro_tiempo||Nuestro Tiempo (political party)|
|fmln||FMLN (political party)|
|n||Nuevas Ideas (political party)|
|pdc||PDC (political party; christian dems)|
|vamos||Vamos (political party)|
|pcn||PCN (political party)|
|gana||Gana (political party)|
|cd||CD (political party)|
|leonardo_bonilla||No idea; one guy?|
|impugnados||Number of contested ballots|
|nulos||Number of null ballots|
|arena||ARENA (political party)|
|coalicion_pcn||A coalition involving PCN?|
|jesus_segovia||No idea; one guy?|
|densidad||Populationd density (ppl per sq km?)|
|percent_urbano||% urban population|
|masculinidad||Male index (# of men per 100 women|
|relacion_dependencia||Dependency ratio (non-working age / working age)|
|x60_anos_y_mas||Percent over 60|
|tgf||Fertility rate (avg. number of kids per woman)|
|tmi||Infant mortality rate (number of deaths per 1,000 live births)|
|asistencia_escolar||School assistance rates (ages?)|
|agua_potable||% access potable water|
|electricidad||% access electricity|
|sin_servicio_sanitario||% without sanitation|
|con_piso_de_tierra||% with dirt floor|