Materials for class

Contents

Slides

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Class activity

We’re looking at this piece by Ryan E. Carlin, Gregory J. Love, and Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, “Natural Disaster and Democratic Legitimacy: The Public Opinion Consequences of Chile’s 2010 Earthquake and Tsunami,” Political Research Quarterly 67, no. 1 (2014): 3–15..

The claim they’re wanting to test is whether Chile’s devastating 2010 earthquake reduced citizens’ trust in local government.

To test this they use a survey fielded after the earthquake, where they assess whether people who suffered damage from the earthquake (destruction of property, injury, etc.) exhibit lower trust in local government than people not hit by the earthquake.

In groups, think about the following:

  1. Support for local government is measured on a 0 (no support) to 1 (full support) scale. How would you interpret the coefficient on page 10?
  2. What kinds of confounding variablesRemember a confounding variable is a variable that causes both our X and Y variable, like years married in the affairs example from class.

    should we be worried about here?
  3. What exactly is the argument as to why earthquakes decrease support for democracy?