Intro to the course
We’re looking at this piece by Ryan E. Carlin, Gregory J. Love, and Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, “Natural Disaster and Democratic Legitimacy: The Public Opinion Consequences of Chile’s 2010 Earthquake and Tsunami,” Political Research Quarterly 67, no. 1 (2014): 3–15..
In groups, think about the following:
- What is the causal claim the authors are trying to test?
- What exactly is the argument as to why earthquakes decrease support for democracy?
- Are all people in Chile equally likely to be affected by earthquake/Tsunami? Who is likely to be more/less affected?
- What kinds of confounding variables1 should we be worried about here?
- Support for local government is measured on a 0 (no support) to 1 (full support) scale. How would you interpret the coefficient on page 10?
Remember a confounding variable is a variable that causes both our X and Y variable, like years married in the affairs example from class.↩︎